Flintlocks and Knobkerries - The Stakes are ever Higher

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 13:06

The events of the past week or so bring to mind the words of an old comrade from the Eastern Cape who made the seemingly obvious observation that while the ANC has been given the honour of leading the nation at this point in our history, it is not the nation – only the nation is the nation. During the struggle there were two competing versions of the nation battling for supremacy but since 1994 we have seen the emergence of a national consciousness that transcends the old divisions. It began appropriately on April 27th in the queues where South Africans discovered that they share a certain dry sense of humour. This is most fortunate because a good sense of humour is an essential precondition for survival in the beloved country. Then, at the 1995 Rugby World Cup, we discovered a shared passion for sport. The nation expected the Springboks to win and when they did there was dancing in the streets.

Over the past 16 years we have seen the emergence of what might be called a national character that is shared across the diversity of cultures which make up the people. For example, we the people of South Africa are generally an easygoing bunch. It takes a lot before we get really gatvol. But woe betide anyone who tests our patience to breaking point because dan gaan die poppe dans, as the reactionary wide boys at FIFATM discovered when they tried to ban the vuvuzela. Soccer fans have put up with all kinds of nonsense from Sep Blatter's dodgy crew but when they went after the vuvuzela they crossed the line.

The recent service delivery protests were another early warning sign that our collective patience is wearing thin. The people have had enough of crime, corruption and incompetence and not being taken seriously. Everyone should start paying attention otherwise there is a good chance that we're gonna toyi-toyi.

There is an added complication to this picture in that the global financial crisis looks, worryingly, as if it might deepen any time soon. The United States will soon need to reschedule more than a trillion dollars of debt and the fact that the rating agencies are considering downgrading America's debt is not a good sign. China looks as if it might be in bubble territory. The PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Greece and Spain) are already in the sights of bond traders. If one or more of them pop we could see a similar sovereign debt meltdown to what happened in Eastern Europe in the 1930s. And that, sports fans, would not be a good result.

As if things weren't bad enough, the tension between the Iranians and the Americans is rising. Last week, President Obama deployed anti-ballistic missile systems to several Gulf states. Rumour has it that all Israeli diplomats were recalled to Tel Aviv last December for a special briefing on national security. The Iranian regime seems determined on a collision course with the West. Its callous brutality towards its own people demonstrates its true character. It is about to discover that Obama is a hard man from Chicago – easily the toughest town in America.

Quite understandably, South Africans want their leaders to start paying attention to what is coming down the track. President Zuma was rudely awakened to this reality last week when he was engulfed in an information firestorm over his affair with Irvin Khoza's daughter. The collective patience of the nation snapped in spectacular fashion. Historians will describe this moment as one of the defining events of our national (r)evolution. While not quite on the same scale as ‘94, it was definitely up there with the World Cup.

For the first few days after the story broke, the President miscalculated the national mood. In the information age, perception is reality and although we have never been under any illusion that President Zuma is a saint; a palpable stridency was quickly evident in the tone of calls to radio talk shows. This past Sunday the front page of the City Press carried quotes from a cross-section of South Africans - almost all of them asking the same question: where does the President find time to run the country? The fact that the gogos were leading the charge should be a major concern to the leadership at Luthuli House. Zuma's presidency has been damaged. If he is to avoid becoming a lame duck he needs to take corrective action in a hurry. Regular readers of this column will recall that there is nothing new under the sun when it comes to these matters. There are patterns to human behaviour that manifest in most if not all presidencies - the possible exceptions being Washington and Mandela whose status as fathers of the nation placed them to some extent above the fray.

In the first instance all presidents get about a year to get their act together. Voters understand that it takes that long to get used to the enormous complexity and pressure that goes with the job and are prepared to overlook minor lapses of concentration. Secondly, all presidents make mistakes. What happens at the end of the honeymoon period is that voters start noticing. Eventually the president makes a mistake that galvanises the opposition and the result is typically defeat in a by-election or in mid-term elections for the legislature or local government.

Successful presidents understand this process and seek to learn from their mistakes and adjust their overall strategy accordingly. Bill Clinton was punished by voters in the 1994 mid-term elections mainly because he had run for office as a moderate “Southern Democrat” but was implementing a health plan that the republicans successfully portrayed as overtly left-wing. He changed course and was able to win a second term largely on the basis of successful welfare reform and the emerging dot-com boom. John F. Kennedy was hammered after the Bay of Pigs fiasco and only recovered his footing during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Barack Obama seems to have repeated Clinton's mistake in health care, which was the major issue in Massachusetts last month when the republicans claimed the senate seat occupied by Ted Kennedy for the past half century. Thabo Mbeki lost the confidence of voters around HIV/AIDS but avoided defeat at the polls because there was not as yet a viable opposition. As a result he failed to correct course in a number of key areas and the premature ending of his presidency was the main consequence.

The irony of the current situation is that President Zuma's performance so far has actually been rather good. The restructuring of the cabinet and the establishment of the Planning Commission and the associated Monitoring and Evaluation portfolio are potential improvements over the previous administration's lack of co-ordination and accountability. In foreign affairs (arguably his most important responsibility) he has excelled. South Africa is taken seriously in the G20 and is a key member of the emerging BASIC (Brazil, America, South Africa, India, China) forum. The Zimbabwe peace process is on track and we continue to make a positive contribution to the African Union.

Here at the New Frontier, we take our metaphors wherever we can get them and so were discussing these matters recently with a musician from one of Jozi's many up-andcoming bands. His take was that the President could learn something from musicians. In the first place music is all about communication. And if the communication lacks authenticity then people switch off. He also observed that it's no good performing a good set if you don't finish well. But the audience is sometimes prepared to forgive you if your mistakes are in the middle of the set and you correct yourself.

Again, President Zuma is potentially a good communicator. And he has, until now, enjoyed something of reputation, amongst those who have met him, for being a good listener, which is the essential precondition for communication. By now, he surely knows that voters are fed up with shenanigans and are demanding results. And, to his credit, by the end of last week we saw the first steps towards a change in course. What he needs to understand is that the time for apologies is over.

South Africans expect a level of seriousness from their leaders that is insufficiently evident right now. The ship of state is heading towards choppy waters and there are dark clouds on the horizon. We need the captain to be at the helm and in communication with the people responsible for ensuring that we make it safely through the storm. Time is of the essence and history will not forgive him if he drops the football.