Solar Power: New Dawn

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:35

Solar energy effortlessly claims the title of "The World's Most Abundant and Permanent Energy Source.' In one hour, more energy from the sun will hit the earth than every single human being in existence could use in a single year.

Some theories suggest that after the sun's rays have been reflected back into space and absorbed by the atmosphere, only 60% of the original energy emitted reaches the surface of the earth. Now, if human beings could capture but 0.1% of that energy, at only 10% efficiency, it would still be four times the total generating capacity (3 000 GW) of the world as we know it. Yet, 80% of the energy we rely on comes from fossil fuels.

There is obviously a wide range of risks associated with the human hunger for fossil fuels, but amidst growing concern, the tides are changing. Society is becoming increasingly aware of supply security, the potential for international conflict and, most importantly, irreversible damage to the environment.

Global Movements

The most rapid shifts are happening in regions where there is not only increased investment in research and development (R&D), accommodating policies and support from regulators and Government, but most notably, high electricity prices. For example, the European Union (EU) and Australia announced plans to have 20% of their energy needs met through renewable energy by 2020. President Barack Obama has declared that he wants to double renewable energy output in the US over the next three years. While this is incredibly optimistic given the current global climate, his intent is true and clear.

China announced investments of R2.8 trillion over the next couple of years, while aiming for a renewable target of 15% by 2025. India's plan is to cut emissions by 25% by 2020 and is already on track to provide an additional 10% of its generation capacity, by 2012, via renewable energy. In the Dominican Republic, where the cost of traditional electricity is already higher than solar power, there is a logical and powerful energy campaign that seeks to make the country climate neutral by 2030, with a medium-term target of 50% renewables by 2020. South Africa, on the other hand, has cheap electricity and a rather flaccid goal of 3% by 2013.

An analysis of energy needs and resources into the future (2050 - 2100), done by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), points to a major long-term solar energy contribution to global supply. The scenario is based on the fact that society needs a swift transition to sustainable energy systems, thereby protecting natural life-support systems and removing energy poverty from the developing world. Furthermore, projections are based on the remarkable scientific and technological advances made over the last century, combined with the swift pace of ongoing research.

As the graph shows, by 2100, our reliance on fossil fuels could drop to less than 15%, while solar thermal and photovoltaics (PV) will supply up to 70% of this drop. Key elements in this long-term view are the energy efficiency and intensity policies that should drive the overall contribution of renewable energy - policies that could deeply transform the construction, transport and manufacturing industries as they increasingly rely on renewable energy.

Under African Skies So, while the world slowly moves toward a solar revolution, where is Africa amidst all this? Deep in a pool of staggering potential. There is no disputing the fact that Africa receives an incredible amount of sunshine. A short while ago, scientists decided to figure out how much energy the Sahara desert holds. Michael Palwyn, Director of Exploration Architecture, said, "I admit I was sceptical until I did the calculations myself". Theory suggests that a 90 600km2 patch of the Sahara - 1% of its total area - could yield the same amount of power as all the world's energy plants combined. An even smaller patch of 15 500km2 could supply electricity for each of the 500 million people in Europe. Staggering indeed.

South Africa

Solar power in South Africa is still, unfortunately, in its infancy. While the amount of activity in the sector is inversely proportionate to the amount of electricity Eskom generates, the basic fact is that Eskom's electricity is still cheap enough to disable competition between traditional and renewable. In light of this, there is only one solar option - out of three - that makes economic sense. If the end goal is to save cents and kilowatts, the only viable technology for a cost-conscious South African is high-pressure solar water heating (SWH).

While South African scientists, such as Professor Vivian Alberts, are on the leading edge of photovoltaic (PV) solar innovations, the cost of PV installations is still beyond prohibitive. Most of the active systems are out of Eskom's reach, where residents have no access to the grid. The third option is solar-heated swimming pools but this market is generally restricted to the middle-to-high income brackets and offers less of a solution to the woes of energy demand.

Despite the industry's youth, there has still been a tremendous amount of growth over the last few years. Eight years ago in the Western Cape there were around ten suppliers in the high-pressure solar water heating market, whereas now there are well over 100. However, with this flurry of entrants, has come a sharp fall in quality. The "Lowest Cost at all Costs' Chinese mantra needs no explanation. Now, the average South African is a relatively short sighted individual, one who seeks the lowest price ahead of long-lasting quality, which is indicative of the state of the market.

Rolff van der Linden, Director of Solahart South Africa, says, "All we're seeing is a frantic effort to jump on the bandwagon, but one faced with very little demand from the end user. There are too many players in the market, and with an ever-increasing quality void driven by a flood of cheap imports, competition driven by cost, not quality."

Solar systems range from around R5 000 to R40 000. The bottom end systems are throwaway versions that last between five and ten years, after which components, such as the tanks, need replacing. Supported by the insurance companies, these low-cost options are drowning out the products that add real value for the end user. Competition creates choice and not everyone can afford the best quality products but, on occasion, it makes more sense to look ahead a little. Buy cheap, buy twice, as someone's grandmother used to say.

Rolff describes a recent quote for a low-cost housing development in Riversdale, in the Western Cape. "We quoted for 184 SWH systems, at R17 000 per unit, which included 150l tank, the most efficient 2m2 panel on the market, a 10-year warranty as well as a five and 10-year services with anode changes. This is effectively a full maintenance plan, which would give the system a 20-25 year lifespan.

"The company awarded the contract offered a system for R8 000, including an 80l tank with 1.5m2 panel and only a five year warranty. This system is less efficient and will last about 10 years. After comparing the costs and amortising the investment, it's clear that the better quality product ends up cheaper, more efficient, longer lasting and better serviced.

Option A 17 000 / 150 / 2 = R56.67 per litre, per m2	Option B 8 000 / 80 / 1.5 = R66.67 per litre, per m2
R56.67 per litre, per m2	R66.67 per litre, per m2

"The poorest people of this country can't afford maintenance and replacements, so why provide them with systems that won't last? If Government is serious about introducing SWH to the people then it makes no sense to go "cheap'.

"Still, the quickest saving you can make is 40% off your total electricity bill through a solar water heating system. The better investment is into a higher quality product, one that will last 20 - 30 years, during which time the customers can amortise their initial investment. It is a capital asset that only adds value. Essentially a home improvement that pays for itself."

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